New CFA Institute Link on Idea Flow Page – Rethinking Equity Risk Premiums

In 2001, a group of highly regarded academics and practitioners met to discuss the equity risk premium (ERP), which is one of the tools that many investment professionals use to project future returns and establish growth assumptions for investment portfolios (retirement and pension plans, foundations, endowments, family financial planning, etc.).

In 2011, a similar discussion took place with many of the same participants including Robert Schiller, Jeremy Siegel, Roger Ibbotson, Marty Leibowitz and Robert Arnott.

The result was a CFA Research Foundation publication, Rethinking the Equity Risk Premium.

It is rather long and has some technical sections, but consider at least a scan if you have time.  I hope you find it useful in giving you some insight into projections that the investment industry uses on your behalf.

As a summary teaser, the group reached more of a consensus in 2011 than in 2001 (yes, traditional bulls and bears somewhat came together).  They suggest that, going forward, returns will be lower than historical long-term returns.  SJM agrees with this view.

We hope we are wrong, but better to be conservative in planning and have better than expected outcomes than the opposite.

 

 

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